Racing Rioja 2–2 Berceo: Result & Stats

Racing Rioja

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Berceo

12/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 14Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja50%

×Draw24%

Berceo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing RiojaExpected goals in this matchBerceo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.16

Racing Rioja

1.70

Berceo

1.16

Racing Rioja creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

1.80

creates per match

1.25

1.07

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Racing Rioja

1.80

Berceo

1.25

allows per match

Racing Rioja

1.07

Berceo

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Berceo →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw

74%

Racing Rioja or Berceo

76%

Draw or Berceo

50%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

27%

Berceo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

82%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

51%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

24%

Berceo 1+ goals

69%

Berceo 2+ goals

32%

Berceo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

66%

Berceo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Berceo attack 1.25 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing Rioja scores more

50%

level

24%

Berceo scores more

26%

Racing Rioja at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff