Berceo 5–2 Racing Rioja: Result & Stats

Berceo

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Racing Rioja

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 31Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Berceo35%

×Draw24%

Racing Rioja40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BerceoExpected goals in this matchRacing Rioja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.54

Berceo

1.42

Racing Rioja

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 30 away

1.41

creates per match

1.47

1.60

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Berceo

1.41

Racing Rioja

1.47

allows per match

Berceo

1.60

Racing Rioja

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Racing Rioja →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Berceo or draw

60%

Berceo or Racing Rioja

76%

Draw or Racing Rioja

65%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+

16%

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals

76%

Berceo 2+ goals

41%

Berceo 3+ goals

17%

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

79%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

45%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)

47%

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Berceo scores more

35%

level

24%

Racing Rioja scores more

40%

Racing Rioja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff