Racing Rioja 2–4 Arnedo: Result & Stats

Racing Rioja

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Arnedo

M. Tata 87'

Miguel Pison 20'

I. Mwanza 63', 13'

Isaac Manjón 50', 12'

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 19Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja41%

×Draw25%

Arnedo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing RiojaExpected goals in this matchArnedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Racing Rioja

1.50

Arnedo

1.35

Racing Rioja creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 95 away

1.80

creates per match

1.63

1.07

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Racing Rioja

1.80

Arnedo

1.63

allows per match

Racing Rioja

1.07

Arnedo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Arnedo →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw

66%

Racing Rioja or Arnedo

75%

Draw or Arnedo

59%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

20%

Arnedo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

78%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

44%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

19%

Arnedo 1+ goals

74%

Arnedo 2+ goals

39%

Arnedo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

54%

Arnedo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Rioja scores more

41%

level

25%

Arnedo scores more

34%

Racing Rioja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Isaac Manjón

13'

I. Mwanza

20'

Miguel Pison

46'

Dani López← Miguel Pison

50'

Isaac Manjón

58'

Alejandro Espeso← G. Vergara

63'

I. Mwanza

64'

Sergio Argaiz← David Sevilla

64'

Miguel Angel← Isaac Manjón

66'

Kudus Issman← Yang Hang

74'

Samu Vallejo← Iván Pascual

74'

Asry← I. Mwanza

87'

M. Tata

Racing

Arnedo

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manjón

Gonzalez

Ochoa

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Pison

Manager: Guillermo Zangróniz

46'▲Dani López←▼Miguel Pison

58'▲Alejandro Espeso←▼G. Vergara

66'▲Kudus Issman←▼Yang Hang

Racing Rioja substitutes

LópezEspesoIssman

Manager: Arpón

64'▲Sergio Argaiz←▼David Sevilla

64'▲Miguel Angel←▼Isaac Manjón

74'▲Samu Vallejo←▼Iván Pascual

74'▲Asry←▼I. Mwanza

Arnedo substitutes

ArgaizAngelVallejoAsry

Match Recap: Racing Rioja vs Arnedo

Arnedo beat Racing Rioja 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 4, 2024.

Goals: Isaac Manjón (12', 50'), I. Mwanza (13', 63'), Miguel Pison (20'), M. Tata (87').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.

Racing Rioja vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Rioja vs Arnedo