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Arnedo vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Arnedo50%
×Draw24%
Racing Rioja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
1.67
Racing Rioja
1.14

Arnedo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
74%
Arnedo or Racing Rioja
76%
Draw or Racing Rioja
50%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
26%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
81%
Arnedo 2+ goals
50%
Arnedo 3+ goals
23%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
68%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
32%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
66%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arnedo scores more
50%
level
24%
Racing Rioja scores more
26%

Arnedo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arnedo vs Racing Rioja

Arnedo and Racing Rioja drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.