Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Rioja II vs Náxara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Náxara
Náxara
2/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II18%
×Draw20%
Náxara62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja II
1.10
Náxara
2.21

Náxara creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja II
1.13
Náxara
2.49

allows per match

Racing Rioja II
1.93
Náxara
1.07

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par
Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Náxara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw
38%
Racing Rioja II or Náxara
80%
Draw or Náxara
82%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
7%
Náxara wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
67%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
30%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
10%
Náxara 1+ goals
89%
Náxara 2+ goals
65%
Náxara 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
22%
Náxara (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Náxara attack 2.49 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more
18%
level
20%
Náxara scores more
62%

Náxara at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Rioja II vs Náxara

Náxara beat Racing Rioja II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.