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Náxara vs Racing Rioja II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Náxara
Náxara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Náxara75%
×Draw17%
Racing Rioja II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náxara
2.31
Racing Rioja II
0.65

Náxara creates 255% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Náxara
2.56
Racing Rioja II
0.60

allows per match

Náxara
0.69
Racing Rioja II
2.07

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par
Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Racing Rioja II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Náxara or draw
91%
Náxara or Racing Rioja II
83%
Draw or Racing Rioja II
25%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+
51%
Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals
90%
Náxara 2+ goals
67%
Náxara 3+ goals
40%
Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
48%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
14%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)
89%
Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.31

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Náxara scores more
75%
level
17%
Racing Rioja II scores more
9%

Náxara at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náxara vs Racing Rioja II

Náxara beat Racing Rioja II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Salera in Nájera.