Racing Rioja II 1–2 Comillas: Result & Stats

Racing Rioja II

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Comillas

1/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 18Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II39%

×Draw24%

Comillas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Rioja IIExpected goals in this matchComillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.50

Racing Rioja II

1.53

Comillas

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

1.13

creates per match

1.06

1.93

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Racing Rioja II

1.13

Comillas

1.06

allows per match

Racing Rioja II

1.93

Comillas

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Comillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Comillas →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw

63%

Racing Rioja II or Comillas

76%

Draw or Comillas

61%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+

19%

Comillas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals

78%

Racing Rioja II 2+ goals

45%

Racing Rioja II 3+ goals

20%

Comillas 1+ goals

78%

Comillas 2+ goals

44%

Comillas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)

51%

Comillas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Comillas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.93 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Comillas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Comillas attack 1.06 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more

39%

level

24%

Comillas scores more

37%

Racing Rioja II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Rioja II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Rioja II vs Comillas

Comillas beat Racing Rioja II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.

Racing Rioja II vs Comillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Rioja II vs Comillas