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Comillas vs Racing Rioja II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
9/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comillas49%
×Draw25%
Racing Rioja II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.58
Racing Rioja II
1.06

Comillas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Racing Rioja II
0.60

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Racing Rioja II
2.07

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Racing Rioja II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
75%
Comillas or Racing Rioja II
75%
Draw or Racing Rioja II
51%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
26%
Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
79%
Comillas 2+ goals
47%
Comillas 3+ goals
21%
Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
65%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
29%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
66%
Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Comillas scores more
49%
level
25%
Racing Rioja II scores more
25%

Comillas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Comillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comillas vs Racing Rioja II

Comillas beat Racing Rioja II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.