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Racing Rioja II vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II32%
×Draw24%
Casalarreina44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja II
1.35
Casalarreina
1.64

Casalarreina creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja II
1.13
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Racing Rioja II
1.93
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw
56%
Racing Rioja II or Casalarreina
76%
Draw or Casalarreina
68%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
14%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
74%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
39%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
15%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
81%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
49%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
42%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more
32%
level
24%
Casalarreina scores more
44%

Casalarreina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Rioja II 1 – 1 Casalarreina

Racing Rioja II and Casalarreina drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.