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Casalarreina vs Racing Rioja II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Campo de Fútbol El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Casalarreina57%
×Draw22%
Racing Rioja II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
1.94
Racing Rioja II
1.09

Casalarreina creates 78% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
Racing Rioja II
0.60

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
Racing Rioja II
2.07

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Racing Rioja II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
79%
Casalarreina or Racing Rioja II
78%
Draw or Racing Rioja II
43%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
33%
Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
86%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
58%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
30%
Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
66%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
30%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
73%
Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Casalarreina scores more
57%
level
22%
Racing Rioja II scores more
21%

Casalarreina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Casalarreina 4 – 2 Racing Rioja II

Casalarreina beat Racing Rioja II 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Soto in Casalarreina.