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Racing Rioja II vs Anguiano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Anguiano
Anguiano
3/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 24Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II23%
×Draw23%
Anguiano54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja II
1.07
Anguiano
1.79

Anguiano creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja II
1.13
Anguiano
1.66

allows per match

Racing Rioja II
1.93
Anguiano
1.01

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par
Anguiano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Anguiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw
46%
Racing Rioja II or Anguiano
77%
Draw or Anguiano
77%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
8%
Anguiano wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
66%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
29%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
9%
Anguiano 1+ goals
83%
Anguiano 2+ goals
53%
Anguiano 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
29%
Anguiano (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Anguiano away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Anguiano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Anguiano attack 1.66 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more
23%
level
23%
Anguiano scores more
54%

Anguiano at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Rioja II vs Anguiano

Anguiano beat Racing Rioja II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.