Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Anguiano vs Racing Rioja II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 9Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anguiano66%
×Draw20%
Racing Rioja II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
2.04
Racing Rioja II
0.81

Anguiano creates 152% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Racing Rioja II
0.60

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Racing Rioja II
2.07

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Racing Rioja II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
86%
Anguiano or Racing Rioja II
80%
Draw or Racing Rioja II
34%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
41%
Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
87%
Anguiano 2+ goals
60%
Anguiano 3+ goals
33%
Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
56%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
19%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
82%
Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Anguiano scores more
66%
level
20%
Racing Rioja II scores more
14%

Anguiano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anguiano vs Racing Rioja II

Anguiano and Racing Rioja II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.