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Racing Rioja II vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Agoncillo
Agoncillo
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II31%
×Draw25%
Agoncillo44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja II
1.28
Agoncillo
1.55

Agoncillo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja II
1.13
Agoncillo
1.18

allows per match

Racing Rioja II
1.93
Agoncillo
1.43

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par
Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Agoncillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw
56%
Racing Rioja II or Agoncillo
75%
Draw or Agoncillo
69%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
13%
Agoncillo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
72%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
37%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
14%
Agoncillo 1+ goals
79%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
46%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
42%
Agoncillo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more
31%
level
25%
Agoncillo scores more
44%

Agoncillo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Rioja II 0 – 2 Agoncillo

Agoncillo beat Racing Rioja II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.