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Agoncillo vs Racing Rioja II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Agoncillo
Agoncillo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
3/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 23Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Agoncillo57%
×Draw24%
Racing Rioja II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agoncillo
1.72
Racing Rioja II
0.88

Agoncillo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

creates per match

Agoncillo
1.38
Racing Rioja II
0.60

allows per match

Agoncillo
1.15
Racing Rioja II
2.07

finishing

Agoncillo+0.00on par
Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agoncillo ↓

Racing Rioja II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Agoncillo or draw
81%
Agoncillo or Racing Rioja II
76%
Draw or Racing Rioja II
43%

Winning margin

Agoncillo wins by 2+
32%
Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Agoncillo 1+ goals
82%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
51%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
25%
Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
59%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
22%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Agoncillo (draw refunded)
75%
Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agoncillo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 79 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agoncillo attack 1.38 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Agoncillo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Agoncillo scores more
57%
level
24%
Racing Rioja II scores more
19%

Agoncillo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Agoncillo 0 – 1 Racing Rioja II

Racing Rioja II beat Agoncillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Agoncillo.