Racing Murcia 1–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Racing Murcia

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Alejo Nahuel 44'

9/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Racing Murcia50%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MurciaExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.86

Racing Murcia

1.42

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.86

Racing Murcia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

1.39

creates per match

0.85

0.87

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Racing Murcia

1.39

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Racing Murcia

0.87

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw

77%

Racing Murcia or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

50%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

25%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

76%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

41%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

17%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

58%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

21%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing Murcia scores more

50%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

23%

Racing Murcia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Alejo Nahuel

58'

Álex Melgar← Asensio Miñarro

70'

Ángel Écija← Hamza El Harchi

70'

Gonzalo Páez← Kilian Morante

70'

Federico Zanetti← Sergio Cases

71'

Fran Conesa← Francisco Escobar

75'

Lorenzo Lopez← Diego Jiménez

75'

Raúl Tornel← Jesús Ros

80'

Francisco Martínez← Carlos Palazón

Racing

CAP

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Jorge Perona

70'▲Ángel Écija←▼Hamza El Harchi

70'▲Gonzalo Páez←▼Kilian Morante

70'▲Federico Zanetti←▼Sergio Cases

80'▲Francisco Martínez←▼Carlos Palazón

Racing Murcia substitutes

ÉcijaPáezZanettiMartínez

Manager: Francisco Lorca

58'▲Álex Melgar←▼Asensio Miñarro

71'▲Fran Conesa←▼Francisco Escobar

75'▲Lorenzo Lopez←▼Diego Jiménez

75'▲Raúl Tornel←▼Jesús Ros

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MelgarConesaLopezTornel

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Racing Murcia beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 18, 2022.

Goals: Alejo Nahuel (44').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.

Racing Murcia vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia