CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–1 Racing Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Murcia

Fran Martínez 63'

Samuel Martínez 48'

Alejo Nahuel 90+4'

1/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia34%

×Draw30%

Racing Murcia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchRacing Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.08

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Racing Murcia

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 62 away

1.03

creates per match

1.13

1.04

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Racing Murcia

1.13

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Racing Murcia

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Racing Murcia →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

64%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Racing Murcia

70%

Draw or Racing Murcia

66%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

13%

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

65%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

66%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

29%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

49%

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

34%

level

30%

Racing Murcia scores more

36%

Racing Murcia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Fran Martínez← Francisco Carrillo

48'

Samuel Martínez

58'

Gonzalo Páez← David Freire

58'

Alejo Nahuel← Kilian Morante

63'

Fran Martínez

65'

Jesús Ros← José Rivas

72'

Federico Zanetti← Andrés Rodríguez

72'

Hugo Pinto← Carlos Palazón

79'

Abdourahmane Ndiaye← Asensio Miñarro

79'

Felipe Valverde← Alejandro Pascual

90+4'

Alejo Nahuel

CAP

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

16'▲Fran Martínez←▼Francisco Carrillo

65'▲Jesús Ros←▼José Rivas

79'▲Abdourahmane Ndiaye←▼Asensio Miñarro

79'▲Felipe Valverde←▼Alejandro Pascual

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MartínezRosNdiayeValverde

Manager: Jorge Perona

58'▲Gonzalo Páez←▼David Freire

58'▲Alejo Nahuel←▼Kilian Morante

72'▲Federico Zanetti←▼Andrés Rodríguez

72'▲Hugo Pinto←▼Carlos Palazón

Racing Murcia substitutes

PáezNahuelZanettiPinto

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Racing Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Racing Murcia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 15, 2023.

Goals: Samuel Martínez (48'), Fran Martínez (63'), Alejo Nahuel (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Racing Murcia