Racing Montevideo 3–0 Progreso: Result & Stats

Racing Montevideo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Progreso

6/22/2025

Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 6Parque Osvaldo Roberto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Racing Montevideo43%

×Draw26%

Progreso31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MontevideoExpected goals in this matchProgreso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.20

Racing Montevideo

1.46

Progreso

1.20

Racing Montevideo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 62 away

1.25

creates per match

1.21

1.19

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Racing Montevideo

1.25

Progreso

1.21

allows per match

Racing Montevideo

1.19

Progreso

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Montevideo ↓

Progreso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Montevideo or draw

69%

Racing Montevideo or Progreso

74%

Draw or Progreso

57%

Winning margin

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+

21%

Progreso wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals

77%

Racing Montevideo 2+ goals

43%

Racing Montevideo 3+ goals

18%

Progreso 1+ goals

70%

Progreso 2+ goals

34%

Progreso 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)

58%

Progreso (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Montevideo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Montevideo attack 1.25 + Progreso defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Progreso attack 1.21 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Montevideo scores more

43%

level

26%

Progreso scores more

31%

Racing Montevideo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff