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Progreso vs Racing Montevideo — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Progreso
Progreso
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
7/7/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 4Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Progreso37%
×Draw26%
Racing Montevideo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progreso
1.34
Racing Montevideo
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 56 away

creates per match

Progreso
1.31
Racing Montevideo
1.18

allows per match

Progreso
1.48
Racing Montevideo
1.38

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par
Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Racing Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Progreso or draw
63%
Progreso or Racing Montevideo
74%
Draw or Racing Montevideo
63%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+
17%
Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals
74%
Progreso 2+ goals
39%
Progreso 3+ goals
15%
Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
74%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
38%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)
50%
Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 1.31 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing Montevideo attack 1.18 + Progreso defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Progreso scores more
37%
level
26%
Racing Montevideo scores more
37%

Progreso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progreso vs Racing Montevideo

Progreso beat Racing Montevideo 3-2 in Primera División - Apertura on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.