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Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
4/18/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Osvaldo Roberto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Racing Montevideo36%
×Draw28%
Defensor Sporting36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Montevideo
1.17
Defensor Sporting
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 75 away

creates per match

Racing Montevideo
1.25
Defensor Sporting
1.17

allows per match

Racing Montevideo
1.19
Defensor Sporting
1.09

finishing

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par
Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Montevideo ↓

Defensor Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Montevideo or draw
64%
Racing Montevideo or Defensor Sporting
72%
Draw or Defensor Sporting
64%

Winning margin

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
15%
Defensor Sporting wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
69%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
33%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
11%
Defensor Sporting 1+ goals
69%
Defensor Sporting 2+ goals
33%
Defensor Sporting 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
50%
Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Montevideo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Montevideo attack 1.25 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Defensor Sporting attack 1.17 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Racing Montevideo scores more
36%
level
28%
Defensor Sporting scores more
36%

Racing Montevideo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Racing Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting

Racing Montevideo and Defensor Sporting drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto in Montevideo.