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Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
2/16/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Defensor Sporting44%
×Draw26%
Racing Montevideo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensor Sporting
1.46
Racing Montevideo
1.17

Defensor Sporting creates 25% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 56 away

creates per match

Defensor Sporting
1.54
Racing Montevideo
1.18

allows per match

Defensor Sporting
1.15
Racing Montevideo
1.38

finishing

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par
Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensor Sporting ↓

Racing Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Defensor Sporting or draw
70%
Defensor Sporting or Racing Montevideo
74%
Draw or Racing Montevideo
56%

Winning margin

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+
21%
Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals
77%
Defensor Sporting 2+ goals
43%
Defensor Sporting 3+ goals
18%
Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
69%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
33%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)
59%
Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensor Sporting at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensor Sporting attack 1.54 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Racing Montevideo attack 1.18 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Defensor Sporting scores more
44%
level
26%
Racing Montevideo scores more
30%

Defensor Sporting at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo

Defensor Sporting beat Racing Montevideo 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.