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Racing Madrid vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Racing Madrid
Racing Madrid
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
Nacho Rodriguez 90'
J. Diaz Hervas 83'
E. Calin 15'
1/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing Madrid22%
×Draw24%
Las Rozas54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Madrid
1.04
Las Rozas
1.76

Las Rozas creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

creates per match

Racing Madrid
0.94
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Racing Madrid
2.29
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Racing Madrid+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Madrid ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Racing Madrid or draw
46%
Racing Madrid or Las Rozas
76%
Draw or Las Rozas
78%

Winning margin

Racing Madrid wins by 2+
8%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Racing Madrid 1+ goals
65%
Racing Madrid 2+ goals
28%
Racing Madrid 3+ goals
9%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
83%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
52%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Racing Madrid (draw refunded)
29%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Madrid at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Madrid attack 0.94 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Racing Madrid defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Madrid scores more
22%
level
24%
Las Rozas scores more
54%

Las Rozas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
E. Calin
43'
E. Calin
83'
J. Diaz Hervas
90'
Nacho Rodriguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Madrid vs Las Rozas

Las Rozas beat Racing Madrid 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 18, 2026.

Goals: E. Calin (15'), J. Diaz Hervas (83'), Nacho Rodriguez (90').