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Las Rozas vs Racing Madrid — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Racing Madrid
Racing Madrid
9/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Las Rozas60%
×Draw21%
Racing Madrid19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.98
Racing Madrid
1.00

Las Rozas creates 98% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Racing Madrid
0.88

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Racing Madrid
2.18

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Racing Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Racing Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
81%
Las Rozas or Racing Madrid
79%
Draw or Racing Madrid
40%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
36%
Racing Madrid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
86%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
59%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
31%
Racing Madrid 1+ goals
63%
Racing Madrid 2+ goals
26%
Racing Madrid 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
76%
Racing Madrid (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Racing Madrid away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Racing Madrid defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.98

Racing Madrid attack 0.88 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Las Rozas scores more
60%
level
21%
Racing Madrid scores more
19%

Las Rozas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Racing Madrid

Las Rozas beat Racing Madrid 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.