Racing Louisville W vs Seattle Reign FC W

Racing Louisville W

Preview

22:30

Seattle Reign FC W

8/19/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageLynn Family Stadium

Big match

41%

Racing Louisville W

model favours

41%26%33%

Racing Louisville W score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Racing Louisville W41%

×Draw26%

Seattle Reign FC W33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.26

Racing Louisville W

1.43

Seattle Reign FC W

1.26

Racing Louisville W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

1.33

creates per match

1.19

1.33

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.33

Seattle Reign FC W

1.19

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.33

Seattle Reign FC W

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

67%

Racing Louisville W or Seattle Reign FC W

74%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

59%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

19%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

76%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

42%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

17%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

72%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

36%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

55%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.33 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.19 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

41%

level

26%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

33%

Racing Louisville W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches
Seattle Reign FC W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
67% of Racing Louisville W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Racing Louisville W win 70% of their home games
Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Racing Louisville W

Direct / counter-attacking

Seattle Reign FC W

Balanced

44%Possession47%

74%Pass accuracy76%

14.2ShotsBiggest gap9.0

1.59xG1.33

Racing Louisville WSeattle Reign FC W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0

Racing Louisville W

1

Draws

4

Seattle Reign FC W

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%

1–20–10–12–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

LLWWW

W

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff