Racing Louisville W 1–1 North Carolina Courage W

Racing Louisville W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

North Carolina Courage W

E. Sears 13'

R. Jackson 69'

3/16/2025

NWSL Women · Round 1Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Racing Louisville W41%

×Draw26%

North Carolina Courage W33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Racing Louisville W

1.42

North Carolina Courage W

1.25

Racing Louisville W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.28

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.36

North Carolina Courage W

1.22

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.28

North Carolina Courage W

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

67%

Racing Louisville W or North Carolina Courage W

74%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

59%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

19%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

76%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

41%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

17%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

71%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

36%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

55%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.22 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

41%

level

26%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

33%

Racing Louisville W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Murphy

North Carolina Courage W · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

E. Sears↳ A. Wright

56'

M. DiGrande← Ary Borges

63'

66'

66'

69'

81'

81'

85'

90+1'

B. A. Pinto← M. Matsukubo

90'

S. Koyama← R. Jackson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingNorth

Overview

32%Possession68%

13Total Shots15

5Corners6

4Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots15

7On Target5

5Off Target5

1Blocked5

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

32%Possession68%

263Total Passes576

171Accurate Passes483

65%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Racing Louisville W vs North Carolina Courage W

Racing Louisville W and North Carolina Courage W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on March 16, 2025.

Goals: E. Sears (13'), R. Jackson (69').

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville.

Racing Louisville W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Racing Louisville W vs North Carolina Courage W