Racing Louisville W 2–1 North Carolina Courage W

Racing Louisville W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

North Carolina Courage W

B. Balcer 90+2' (pen)

E. Sears 79'

B. Pinto 43'

9/21/2024

NWSL Women · Round 16Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Racing Louisville W41%

×Draw26%

North Carolina Courage W33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Racing Louisville W

1.42

North Carolina Courage W

1.25

Racing Louisville W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.28

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.36

North Carolina Courage W

1.22

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.28

North Carolina Courage W

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

67%

Racing Louisville W or North Carolina Courage W

74%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

59%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

19%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

76%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

41%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

17%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

71%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

36%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

55%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.22 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

41%

level

26%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

33%

Racing Louisville W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

B. Balcer

Racing Louisville W · F

7.7

Match Events

19'

38'

43'

59'

68'

M. Pokorny← J. Beckie

73'

Kerolin← B. Pinto

73'

O. Wingate← H. Hopkins

78'

Felicitas Rauch

79'

E. Sears

84'

M. Speck← Aline Gomes

84'

M. Bell← F. Rauch

89'

Narumi Miura

90+7'

Ryan Williams

90+3'

P. Goins← B. Balcer

90+4'

B. St-Georges← D. Weatherholt

90+2'

B. BalcerPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingNorth

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots9

3Corners3

4Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target2

7Off Target5

3Blocked2

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

332Total Passes590

280Accurate Passes524

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 2–1 North Carolina Courage W

Racing Louisville W beat North Carolina Courage W 2-1 in NWSL Women on September 21, 2024.

Goals: B. Pinto (43'), E. Sears (79'), B. Balcer (90+2' pen).

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.

Racing Louisville W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 2–1 North Carolina Courage W