Racing Louisville W vs Houston Dash W

Racing Louisville W

Preview

00:00

Houston Dash W

7/19/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageLynn Family Stadium

47%

Racing Louisville W

model favours

47%26%27%

Racing Louisville W score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Racing Louisville W47%

×Draw26%

Houston Dash W27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Racing Louisville W

1.52

Houston Dash W

1.10

Racing Louisville W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

1.33

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.33

Houston Dash W

0.88

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.33

Houston Dash W

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

73%

Racing Louisville W or Houston Dash W

74%

Draw or Houston Dash W

53%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

24%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

78%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

45%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

20%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

67%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

30%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

63%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.33 + Houston Dash W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Houston Dash W attack 0.88 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

47%

level

26%

Houston Dash W scores more

27%

Racing Louisville W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

67% of Racing Louisville W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Racing Louisville W win 70% of their home games
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
Their last 3 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Racing Louisville W

Direct / counter-attacking

Houston Dash W

Balanced

44%Possession50%

74%Pass accuracy80%

14.2ShotsBiggest gap8.6

1.59xG—

Racing Louisville WHouston Dash W

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

1

Racing Louisville W

1

Draws

1

Houston Dash W

Avg goals: 4BTTS: 100%

3–41–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

LLWWW

W

DLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff