Racing Louisville W 1–1 Houston Dash W

Racing Louisville W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Houston Dash W

T. Flint 71'

E. Duljan 90'

8/29/2025

NWSL Women · Round 18Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Racing Louisville W48%

×Draw26%

Houston Dash W26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.06

Racing Louisville W

1.54

Houston Dash W

1.06

Racing Louisville W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.36

creates per match

0.85

1.28

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.36

Houston Dash W

0.85

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.28

Houston Dash W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

74%

Racing Louisville W or Houston Dash W

74%

Draw or Houston Dash W

52%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

25%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

79%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

45%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

20%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

65%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

29%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

65%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + Houston Dash W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Houston Dash W attack 0.85 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

48%

level

26%

Houston Dash W scores more

26%

Racing Louisville W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Ryan

Houston Dash W · F

7.2

Match Events

8'

Kayla Fischer

46'

S. Weber← K. Fischer

60'

C. Larisey← M. Bright

62'

M. DiGrande← Ary Borges

71'

K. O'Kane← M. Morris

71'

T. Flint↳ C. Petersen

79'

E. Duljan← D. Sheehan

79'

S. Puntigam← D. Colaprico

87'

B. Balcer← S. Demelo

90+2'

S. Schmidt← K. van Zanten

90'

E. Duljan↳ Y. Ryan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingHouston

Overview

39%Possession61%

0Total Shots3

1Corners2

2Fouls0

Shots

0Total Shots3

0On Target2

0Off Target0

0Blocked1

0Inside Box2

0Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

61Total Passes93

45Accurate Passes75

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

2Fouls0

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1