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Houston Dash W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2025

Houston Dash W
Houston Dash W
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
S. Puntigam 90' (pen)
K. van Zanten 67', 50'
K. Rader 39' (pen)
T. Flint 81' (pen), 23' (pen)
S. Weber 48'
4/4/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageShell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Houston Dash W40%
×Draw25%
Racing Louisville W34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dash W
1.46
Racing Louisville W
1.32

Houston Dash W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Houston Dash W
1.24
Racing Louisville W
1.16

allows per match

Houston Dash W
1.48
Racing Louisville W
1.68

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par
Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

Racing Louisville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw
66%
Houston Dash W or Racing Louisville W
75%
Draw or Racing Louisville W
60%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+
19%
Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals
77%
Houston Dash W 2+ goals
43%
Houston Dash W 3+ goals
18%
Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
73%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
38%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)
54%
Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.24 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Racing Louisville W attack 1.16 + Houston Dash W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Houston Dash W scores more
40%
level
25%
Racing Louisville W scores more
34%

Houston Dash W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Houston Dash W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
K. van ZantenHouston Dash WHouston Dash W · F
10.0

Match Events

19'
Elisabeth Charlotte JeanPenalty confirmed
23'
T. FlintPenalty
39'
K. RaderPenalty
45+5'
Paige Nielsen
48'
S. Weber
50'
K. van Zanten↳ D. Colaprico
56'
Macey Hodge
67'
K. van Zanten
69'
Katie O'Kane
71'
S. Puntigam← D. Colaprico
71'
R. Hill← E. Hase
71'
A. McKeen← E. Sears
75'
C. Larisey← M. Bright
78'
Jane Campbell
81'
T. FlintPenalty
86'
L. Boattin← M. Berkely
90+12'
Avery Patterson
90+9'
A. Ciorbu← M. Hodge
90'
S. PuntigamPenalty

Possession

46%Houston

Shots

24Houston

Pass accuracy

50%Houston

Statistics

HoustonRacing
Overview
46%Possession54%
24Total Shots8
3.20Expected Goals (xG)2.43
5Corners3
14Fouls10
Shots
24Total Shots8
5On Target4
9Off Target4
10Blocked0
16Inside Box6
8Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
328Total Passes375
239Accurate Passes274
73%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

NWSL Women: Houston Dash W 4–3 Racing Louisville W

Houston Dash W beat Racing Louisville W 4-3 in NWSL Women on April 4, 2026.

Goals: T. Flint (23' pen, 81' pen), K. Rader (39' pen), S. Weber (48'), K. van Zanten (50', 67'), S. Puntigam (90' pen).

Racing Louisville W controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 24.

The match was played at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston.