Racing Louisville W 3–1 Chicago Red Stars W

Racing Louisville W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

K. Fischer 77'

M. DiGrande 61'

U. Kanu 12'

J. Joseph 59'

8/24/2024

NWSL Women · Round 13Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Racing Louisville W45%

×Draw25%

Chicago Red Stars W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

Racing Louisville W

1.56

Chicago Red Stars W

1.21

Racing Louisville W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 83 away

1.25

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.25

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.30

Chicago Red Stars W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

70%

Racing Louisville W or Chicago Red Stars W

75%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

55%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

23%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

79%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

46%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

21%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

70%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

34%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

61%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

45%

level

25%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

30%

Racing Louisville W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Fischer

Racing Louisville W · M

8.6

Match Events

12'

U. Kanu↳ B. Balcer

41'

Hannah Anderson

42'

Lauren Milliet

45+1'

T. Malham← T. Milazzo

55'

E. Sears← U. Kanu

56'

K. Fischer← B. Balcer

57'

Jameese Joseph

59'

J. Joseph↳ P. Hocking

61'

M. DiGrande↳ K. Fischer

67'

Leilanni Nesbeth

69'

J. Beckie← S. DeMelo

70'

Nádia Gomes← J. Joseph

70'

C. Biegalski← L. Nesbeth

77'

K. Fischer↳ T. Flint

82'

Júlia Bianchi← B. Franklin

82'

S. Griffith← N. Kuikka

90+2'

Ary Borges

90+7'

J. Baggett← T. Flint

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingChicago

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots10

1Corners1

10Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots10

7On Target3

9Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

10Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

573Total Passes383

500Accurate Passes297

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0