Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Racing Louisville W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Louisville W

E. Sears 26'

5/25/2024

NWSL Women · Round 9SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W46%

×Draw25%

Racing Louisville W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchRacing Louisville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.20

Chicago Red Stars W

1.57

Racing Louisville W

1.20

Chicago Red Stars W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

1.42

creates per match

1.03

1.37

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.42

Racing Louisville W

1.03

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.37

Racing Louisville W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Racing Louisville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

71%

Chicago Red Stars W or Racing Louisville W

75%

Draw or Racing Louisville W

54%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

23%

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

79%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

46%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

21%

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

70%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

34%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

61%

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Racing Louisville W attack 1.03 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

46%

level

25%

Racing Louisville W scores more

29%

Chicago Red Stars W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

E. Sears

Racing Louisville W · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

26'

34'

39'

46'

49'

58'

66'

S. Groom← A. Schlegel

66'

R. Turner← K. Fischer

79'

P. Goins← E. Bahr

81'

B. Franklin← C. Roccaro

81'

H. Anderson← M. Rall

86'

J. Joseph← P. Hocking

90'

M. Pokorny← E. Sears

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoRacing

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots21

4Corners8

15Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots21

5On Target4

4Off Target12

4Blocked5

7Inside Box13

6Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

355Total Passes418

258Accurate Passes333

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

NWSL Women: Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Racing Louisville W

Racing Louisville W beat Chicago Red Stars W 1-0 in NWSL Women on May 25, 2024.

Goals: E. Sears (26').

Racing Louisville W controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois.

Chicago Red Stars W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Racing Louisville W