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Racing Louisville W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
A. Oshoala 76' (pen)
6/29/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 11Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Racing Louisville W43%
×Draw26%
Bay FC W31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Louisville W
1.47
Bay FC W
1.21

Racing Louisville W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Racing Louisville W
1.36
Bay FC W
1.14

allows per match

Racing Louisville W
1.28
Bay FC W
1.57

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw
69%
Racing Louisville W or Bay FC W
74%
Draw or Bay FC W
57%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
21%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
77%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
43%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
18%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
70%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
34%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
58%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + Bay FC W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bay FC W attack 1.14 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more
43%
level
26%
Bay FC W scores more
31%

Racing Louisville W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. MillietRacing Louisville WRacing Louisville W · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
Joelle Anderson
46'
D. Castellanos← J. Anderson
64'
R. Turner← E. Bahr
65'
P. Marfo← T. Boade
65'
S. King← C. Dydasco
65'
K. Sharples← J. Beattie
71'
P. Goins← K. Fischer
72'
J. Baggett← M. DiGrande
73'
Princess MarfoPenalty confirmed
76'
Jordan DiBiasi
76'
A. OshoalaPenalty
89'
M. Pokorny← E. Sears
90+3'
C. Conti← A. Oshoala

Possession

54%Racing

Shots

8Racing

Pass accuracy

51%Racing

Statistics

RacingBay
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots7
1Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots7
1On Target1
6Off Target1
1Blocked5
5Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
444Total Passes391
383Accurate Passes324
86%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 0–1 Bay FC W

Bay FC W beat Racing Louisville W 1-0 in NWSL Women on June 29, 2024.

Goals: A. Oshoala (76' pen).

Racing Louisville W controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.