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Bay FC W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
A. Oshoala 75'
9/8/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 14PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bay FC W37%
×Draw26%
Racing Louisville W37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
1.34
Racing Louisville W
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
1.00
Racing Louisville W
1.16

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.52
Racing Louisville W
1.68

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Racing Louisville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
63%
Bay FC W or Racing Louisville W
74%
Draw or Racing Louisville W
63%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
17%
Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
74%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
39%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
15%
Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
74%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
39%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
50%
Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.00 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing Louisville W attack 1.16 + Bay FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bay FC W scores more
37%
level
26%
Racing Louisville W scores more
37%

Bay FC W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bay FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
D. BaileyBay FC WBay FC W · M
8.3

Match Events

60'
P. Hocking← R. Hill
75'
A. Oshoala↳ P. Hocking
77'
D. Castellanos← T. Boade
77'
K. Fischer← E. Sears
82'
Asisat Oshoala
86'
M. Moreau← A. Oshoala
89'
C. Petersen← J. Beckie

Possession

53%Bay

Shots

15Bay

Pass accuracy

50%Bay

Statistics

BayRacing
Overview
53%Possession47%
15Total Shots11
6Corners1
6Fouls3
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target2
5Off Target6
4Blocked3
10Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
470Total Passes428
359Accurate Passes322
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls3
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Bay FC W vs Racing Louisville W

Bay FC W beat Racing Louisville W 1-0 in NWSL Women on September 8, 2024.

Goals: A. Oshoala (75').

Bay FC W controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.