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Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
2/19/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Racing Ferrol46%
×Draw27%
Pontevedra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.38
Pontevedra
0.97

Racing Ferrol creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 65 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
74%
Racing Ferrol or Pontevedra
73%
Draw or Pontevedra
54%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
22%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
75%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
40%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
16%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
62%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
25%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
64%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
46%
level
27%
Pontevedra scores more
26%

Racing Ferrol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra

Racing Ferrol beat Pontevedra 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.