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Pontevedra vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
12/4/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pontevedra38%
×Draw30%
Racing Ferrol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.12
Racing Ferrol
1.02

Pontevedra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 83 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
67%
Pontevedra or Racing Ferrol
70%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
62%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
15%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
67%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
31%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
10%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
64%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
27%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
54%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.12

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pontevedra scores more
38%
level
30%
Racing Ferrol scores more
33%

Pontevedra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontevedra vs Racing Ferrol

Racing Ferrol beat Pontevedra 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón in Pontevedra.