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Racing Ferrol vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
11/27/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Racing Ferrol46%
×Draw28%
Mérida AD26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.34
Mérida AD
0.93

Racing Ferrol creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
74%
Racing Ferrol or Mérida AD
72%
Draw or Mérida AD
54%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
22%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
74%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
39%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
15%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
61%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
24%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
64%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
46%
level
28%
Mérida AD scores more
26%

Racing Ferrol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Racing Ferrol 1–1 Mérida AD

Racing Ferrol and Mérida AD drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.