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Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
3/28/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Romano Jose Fouto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD37%
×Draw29%
Racing Ferrol34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.15
Racing Ferrol
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
66%
Mérida AD or Racing Ferrol
71%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
63%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
15%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
68%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
32%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
11%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
67%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
30%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
52%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mérida AD scores more
37%
level
29%
Racing Ferrol scores more
34%

Mérida AD at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mérida AD 2 – 1 Racing Ferrol

Mérida AD beat Racing Ferrol 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto in Mérida.