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Racing Ferrol vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Melilla
Melilla
11/17/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Racing Ferrol52%
×Draw24%
Melilla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.67
Melilla
1.04

Racing Ferrol creates 61% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
76%
Racing Ferrol or Melilla
76%
Draw or Melilla
48%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
28%
Melilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
81%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
50%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
23%
Melilla 1+ goals
65%
Melilla 2+ goals
28%
Melilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
69%
Melilla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.67

Melilla attack 1.14 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
52%
level
24%
Melilla scores more
24%

Racing Ferrol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Melilla

Racing Ferrol and Melilla drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.