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Melilla vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
CANC
00:00
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla34%
×Draw32%
Racing Ferrol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
0.93
Racing Ferrol
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
67%
Melilla or Racing Ferrol
68%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
66%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
12%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Melilla 3+ goals
7%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
60%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
23%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
51%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Melilla scores more
34%
level
32%
Racing Ferrol scores more
33%

Melilla at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla face Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Melilla hosting Racing Ferrol. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Melilla host Racing Ferrol at Estadio Álvarez Claro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.