Racing Ferrol 1–1 Internacional de Madrid

Racing Ferrol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Joselu 9'

Rubén Ramos 76' (pen)

9/15/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Racing Ferrol50%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Madrid23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.85

Racing Ferrol

1.42

Internacional de Madrid

0.85

Racing Ferrol creates 67% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

1.41

creates per match

0.76

0.94

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.41

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

0.94

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

77%

Racing Ferrol or Internacional de Madrid

73%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

50%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

25%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

76%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

41%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

17%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

57%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

21%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

69%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

50%

level

27%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

23%

Racing Ferrol at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Joselu

61'

Adrián Armental← Dani Ábalo

64'

Chevi← N. Arkine

76'

Rubén RamosPenalty

77'

Marcos Álvarez← Raúl Tavares

79'

Diego Simón← Alvar Herrero

82'

Aythami Perera← Adrián Mance

90+1'

Juan Antonio← Joselu

Racing

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Joselu

Rey

Manager: Emilio Larraz

61'▲Adrián Armental←▼Dani Ábalo

77'▲Marcos Álvarez←▼Raúl Tavares

90+1'▲Juan Antonio←▼Joselu

Racing Ferrol substitutes

ArmentalÁlvarezAntonioBeltránLeobaldeVillarejoBosch

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

64'▲Chevi←▼N. Arkine

79'▲Diego Simón←▼Alvar Herrero

82'▲Aythami Perera←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

CheviSimónPereraNúñezPedroMarcãoValero