Internacional de Madrid 0–0 Racing Ferrol

Internacional de Madrid

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Ferrol

1/8/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid42%

×Draw27%

Racing Ferrol32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Internacional de Madrid

1.38

Racing Ferrol

1.17

Internacional de Madrid creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 83 away

1.82

creates per match

1.10

1.24

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Racing Ferrol

1.10

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Racing Ferrol

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

68%

Internacional de Madrid or Racing Ferrol

73%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

58%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

19%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

75%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

40%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

16%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

69%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

33%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

57%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

42%

level

27%

Racing Ferrol scores more

32%

Internacional de Madrid at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Arthur

25'

Sergio Arribas← Pitu

64'

Héber Pena← Íñigo Alayeto

64'

J. Viacava← Joselu

66'

F. Reguera

69'

Nathan← David Rodríguez

75'

Álex Zambrano← David Barral

75'

Álvaro Montero← Arthur

79'

80'

85'

85'

90+1'

Internacional

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

25'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Pitu

75'▲Álex Zambrano←▼David Barral

75'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Arthur

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArribasZambranoMonteroGilMasogoSolerGonzález

Manager: Cristóbal

64'▲Héber Pena←▼Íñigo Alayeto

64'▲J. Viacava←▼Joselu

69'▲Nathan←▼David Rodríguez

Racing Ferrol substitutes

PenaViacavaNathanCandelasRivasSalvàGarcíaChacónFornosTaborda

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Racing Ferrol

Internacional de Madrid and Racing Ferrol drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Racing Ferrol