Racing Ferrol 1–1 FC Cartagena: Result & Stats

Racing Ferrol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Cartagena

10/8/2023

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol41%

×Draw28%

FC Cartagena31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchFC Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Racing Ferrol

1.29

FC Cartagena

1.08

Racing Ferrol creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

1.02

creates per match

0.95

1.21

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.02

FC Cartagena

0.95

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

1.21

FC Cartagena

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

FC Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

69%

Racing Ferrol or FC Cartagena

72%

Draw or FC Cartagena

59%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

19%

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

72%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

37%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

14%

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

66%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

29%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

57%

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

41%

level

28%

FC Cartagena scores more

31%

Racing Ferrol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff