FC Cartagena 2–1 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

FC Cartagena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Racing Ferrol

3/9/2024

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Cartagena47%

×Draw28%

Racing Ferrol25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CartagenaExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

FC Cartagena

1.36

Racing Ferrol

0.92

FC Cartagena creates 48% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

1.18

creates per match

0.67

1.16

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FC Cartagena

1.18

Racing Ferrol

0.67

allows per match

FC Cartagena

1.16

Racing Ferrol

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw

75%

FC Cartagena or Racing Ferrol

72%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

53%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

22%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

74%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

39%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

16%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

60%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

23%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

65%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Cartagena scores more

47%

level

28%

Racing Ferrol scores more

25%

FC Cartagena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff