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Racing Ferrol vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elche
Elche
Nico Serrano 64'
3/31/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 33Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol36%
×Draw28%
Elche36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.15
Elche
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.02
Elche
1.07

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
1.21
Elche
1.28

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
64%
Racing Ferrol or Elche
72%
Draw or Elche
64%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
15%
Elche wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
68%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
32%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
11%
Elche 1+ goals
68%
Elche 2+ goals
32%
Elche 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
50%
Elche (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Elche attack 1.07 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
36%
level
28%
Elche scores more
36%

Racing Ferrol at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
Nico SerranoRacing FerrolRacing Ferrol · M
8.2

Match Events

19'
Pedro Bigas
22'
Nicolás Castro
46'
Aleix Febas← José Salinas
57'
Fran Manzanara← Álex López
61'
Nacho Sánchez← Óscar Pinchi
62'
Jon Garcia
62'
Mourad El Ghezouani
63'
Josan
64'
Nico Serrano↳ Nacho Sánchez
65'
Nico Serrano
65'
Nicolás Fernández
72'
Manu Nieto← Mourad
72'
Rodrigo Mendoza← Arnau Puigmal
80'
Álex Martín← Iker Losada
80'
Sabin Merino← Álvaro Giménez
82'
Borja Garcés← John Donald
90+4'
R. Núñez← N. Fernández Mercau

Possession

38%Racing

Shots

11Racing

Pass accuracy

47%Racing

Statistics

RacingElche
Overview
38%Possession62%
11Total Shots7
0Corners7
10Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots7
4On Target3
6Off Target2
1Blocked2
6Inside Box1
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
304Total Passes489
213Accurate Passes391
70%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards5
6Offsides3

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Elche

Racing Ferrol beat Elche 1-0 in Segunda División on March 31, 2024.

Goals: Nico Serrano (64').

Elche controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.