Elche 0–1 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Ferrol

Iker Losada 51'

8/12/2023

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Elche54%

×Draw27%

Racing Ferrol19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.72

Elche

1.43

Racing Ferrol

0.72

Elche creates 99% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.31

creates per match

0.67

0.76

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Racing Ferrol

0.67

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Racing Ferrol

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw

81%

Elche or Racing Ferrol

73%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

46%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

27%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

76%

Elche 2+ goals

42%

Elche 3+ goals

17%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

51%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

16%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

74%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elche scores more

54%

level

27%

Racing Ferrol scores more

19%

Elche at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Tete Morente

Elche · M

7.3

Match Events

39'

Jesús Bernal

44'

Carlos Vicente

51'

Iker Losada

56'

Cristian Salvador← Raúl Guti

56'

N. Castro← N. Fernández Mercau

61'

Fran Manzanara← Chuca

69'

Manu Justo← Sabin Merino

73'

Óscar Plano← Josan

73'

L. Blanco← José Salinas

81'

Pere Milla← Fidel

86'

Moi Delgado← Iker Losada

86'

Héber Pena← Carlos Vicente

86'

Álex López← Josep Señé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheRacing

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots10

4Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots10

1On Target2

8Off Target5

5Blocked3

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

467Total Passes375

392Accurate Passes290

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0