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Racing Ferrol vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos
Burgos
11/19/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol39%
×Draw30%
Burgos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.14
Burgos
1.00

Racing Ferrol creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.02
Burgos
0.79

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
1.21
Burgos
1.25

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
68%
Racing Ferrol or Burgos
70%
Draw or Burgos
61%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
16%
Burgos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
68%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
32%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
11%
Burgos 1+ goals
63%
Burgos 2+ goals
26%
Burgos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
55%
Burgos (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Burgos attack 0.79 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
39%
level
30%
Burgos scores more
32%

Racing Ferrol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Racing Ferrol 1–1 Burgos

Racing Ferrol and Burgos drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.