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Burgos vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018

Burgos
Burgos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
10/24/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Burgos53%
×Draw27%
Racing Ferrol19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos
1.41
Racing Ferrol
0.72

Burgos creates 96% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

creates per match

Burgos
1.26
Racing Ferrol
0.67

allows per match

Burgos
0.76
Racing Ferrol
1.55

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Burgos or draw
81%
Burgos or Racing Ferrol
73%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
47%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+
27%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals
76%
Burgos 2+ goals
41%
Burgos 3+ goals
17%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
51%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
16%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)
74%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Burgos scores more
53%
level
27%
Racing Ferrol scores more
19%

Burgos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Burgos 1–1 Racing Ferrol

Burgos and Racing Ferrol drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.