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Racing Ferrol vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
10/6/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Racing Ferrol42%
×Draw31%
Atlético Baleares27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.13
Atlético Baleares
0.85

Racing Ferrol creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Atlético Baleares
0.77

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Atlético Baleares
0.85

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
73%
Racing Ferrol or Atlético Baleares
69%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
58%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
68%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
31%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
61%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
42%
level
31%
Atlético Baleares scores more
27%

Racing Ferrol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Atlético Baleares

Atlético Baleares beat Racing Ferrol 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.