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Atlético Baleares vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
2/23/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Baleares53%
×Draw25%
Racing Ferrol22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.60
Racing Ferrol
0.92

Atlético Baleares creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
2.27
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
0.73
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
78%
Atlético Baleares or Racing Ferrol
75%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
47%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
28%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
22%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
60%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
23%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
71%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 2.27 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
53%
level
25%
Racing Ferrol scores more
22%

Atlético Baleares at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Baleares 1–0 Racing Ferrol

Atlético Baleares beat Racing Ferrol 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.