Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1–0 Victoria Rosport

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Victoria Rosport

M. Saban 37'

9/28/2025

National Division · Round 8Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg48%

×Draw23%

Victoria Rosport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FC Union LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchVictoria Rosport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.33

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.78

Victoria Rosport

1.33

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 115 away

1.65

creates per match

1.29

1.37

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.65

Victoria Rosport

1.29

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.37

Victoria Rosport

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Victoria Rosport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw

71%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Victoria Rosport

77%

Draw or Victoria Rosport

52%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

26%

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

83%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

53%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

26%

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

74%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

38%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

62%

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 116 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.65 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Victoria Rosport attack 1.29 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

48%

level

23%

Victoria Rosport scores more

29%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

37'

M. Saban

59'

62'

63'

70'

A. Diakhite← M. Saban

72'

A. Camdzic← M. Arslan

78'

B. Chibani← H. Dupays

78'

A. Bisevac← C. Herrmann

79'

85'

D. Skuka← M. Bechtold

90'

90+2'

Z. Ho-A-Tham← S. Trombini

93'

Racing

Victoria

2

Faldey

4

▼

Bechtold

19

▼

Trombini

9

Kyereh

10

▼

13

17

22

25

27

77

3

4

6

7

9

▼

Herrmann

10

Ikene

16

Ruffier

17

▼

Dupays

19

⚽

▼

Saban

20

Fonrose

21

Mabanza

Manager: Yannick Kakoko

70'▲A. Diakhite←▼M. Saban

78'▲B. Chibani←▼H. Dupays

78'▲A. Bisevac←▼C. Herrmann

Racing FC Union Luxembourg substitutes

8Chibani11Diakhite15Giesteira34Bisevac40Ballicalioglu99Azemi

Manager: Martin Forkel

72'▲A. Camdzic←▼M. Arslan

85'▲D. Skuka←▼M. Bechtold

90+2'▲Z. Ho-A-Tham←▼S. Trombini

Victoria Rosport substitutes

6Fernandes8Sousa14Ho-A-Tham78Skuka80Camdzic99Jiang