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Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Victoria Rosport — Cup 2020

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourgadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
K. N'Goma 88' (pen)
O. Mazie 5'
Y. Mabella 1'
E. Carratala-Jimenez 82' (pen)
3/12/2025CupCup · Round of 16Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg39%
×Draw23%
Victoria Rosport39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.69
Victoria Rosport
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Victoria Rosport
2.38

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.00
Victoria Rosport
1.38

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw
61%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Victoria Rosport
77%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
61%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
20%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
82%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
50%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
24%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
82%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
50%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
50%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 2.00 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Victoria Rosport attack 2.38 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
39%
level
23%
Victoria Rosport scores more
39%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Y. Mabella
5'
O. Mazie
82'
E. Carratala-JimenezPenalty
88'
K. N'GomaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3–1 Victoria Rosport

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Victoria Rosport 3-1 in Cup on March 12, 2025.

Goals: Y. Mabella (1'), O. Mazie (5'), E. Carratala-Jimenez (82' pen), K. N'Goma (88' pen).

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.